Antonio Ocaranza
President Claudia Sheinbaum has had to walk a fine line between trying to respond effectively to pressure from Donald Trump’s administration and maintaining a discourse of sovereignty and rejection of US interventionism. So far, her actions have been justified with a discourse that supports the principles of the Fourth Transformation: cooperation without subordination, strengthening of Mexican industry, and the fight against organized crime and corruption.
In these terms, the government has explained four decisions that, although not motivated by a desire to appease Washington, serve to smooth bilateral relations: 1) tariffs on Asian products, 2) the prosecution of criminal leaders linked to politics, 3) the fight against fuel theft, and 4) the extradition of drug lords to the US justice system.
- Tariffs on Asian products. The decision to impose tariffs on goods from Asia to protect Mexican industry will be seen by the White House as a concession, but the Mexican government presents it as a measure to promote domestic production, the relocation of value chains, and job creation. In the logic of the 4T, it is not submission, but a strategic move: Mexico wants to consolidate itself as a reliable partner and not as the backyard for products from countries with which Mexico has a historic trade deficit. The application of tariffs kills three birds with one stone.
- Arrest of criminal leaders with political ties. The trial of Hernán Bermúdez, who was secretary of security in the Tabasco government under Adán Augusto López and identified as the leader of “La Barredora,” exemplifies the coincidence of interests between the White House and the National Palace. Washington needs Mexico not to be a refuge for drug lords sponsored by local power. For the 4T, the message is clear: Morena does not protect politicians linked to drug trafficking. Although the measure involves internal costs, it aligns with the banner of separating political power from organized crime and helps keep political groups that flirt with challenging presidential power in line.
- Combating fuel theft. Illegal fuel import networks affect the Mexican treasury and provide financial resources to criminal groups linked to fentanyl trafficking. The investigation into the fuel seizure in Altamira, which involves the nephews-in-law of former Navy Secretary Admiral Rafael Ojeda Durán, shows that Sheinbaum is willing to touch interests with historical weight. The measure is painful, but consistent with the maxim that “power is exercised to serve, not to plunder.”
- Extradition of drug lords to the United States. In less than six months, in two batches, the Mexican government has extradited 55 high-profile organized crime leaders to the United States. From a bilateral perspective, the action reinforces Mexico’s commitment to combating transnational organized crime. From the internal narrative of the 4T, it becomes an example that no one is above the law. What could be seen as a concession translates into a message of strength: the country is getting rid of the burdens that have corrupted public life for decades.
So far, Sheinbaum has managed to turn what appear to be concessions to the United States into narrative victories for the Fourth Transformation. Tariffs strengthen Mexican industry, the arrests of drug lords and the fight against fuel theft clean up politics and strengthen the state, and extraditions show a government determined to break criminal impunity. The measures are consistent with the mission to “regenerate public life” and are not capitulations to the northern neighbor.
Today, in terms of security, the convergence of interests between the United States and Mexico seems evident. But with each police action, the Mexican government supports the US narrative that organized crime has penetrated the structures of authority in Mexico and built ties with the new political class of the Fourth Transformation. In the medium term, this could have a high political cost for the Morena government. Possible revelations from El Mayo Zambada or members of the Guzmán family will open new chapters of political corruption in Mexico. The Mexican government will find it very costly to prosecute those involved or to ignore the allegations. With the fire of revelations will come weeping and gnashing of teeth.
